53 posts categorized "Michigan"

The part-time blues: White collar versus blue collar jobs

Part-time work has seen a considerable swing since the recession (see earlier Roundup post). Different types of workers also saw varying fluctuations in part-time work. Take blue collar versus white collar workers, for example.

The Current Population Survey, conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau, categorizes 11 major occupations by the color of their collar: Two are white collar and nine are blue collar (see table, at bottom). As a result, blue collar jobs currently make up a little more than 70 percent of all part-time jobs (see Chart 1).

Part-time B&W collar CH1

Roughly one-quarter of all blue collar jobs are part time, a ratio that changed modestly during the recession, but has been declining (see Chart 2). Levels of “part-time jobs for economic reasons”—a category described by the CPS as “involuntary”—are also much higher as a share of the labor force compared with white collar positions (see Chart 3).

 The share of blue collar workers at part-time jobs involuntarily rose steeply during the recession and remained quite elevated until last year, when levels began to fall quite rapidly and are now near prerecession levels. A similar pattern exists for the share of white collar workers who are part time involuntarily, although this share is still somewhat elevated.

Look for future fedgazette Roundup blog posts on more part-time job trends in Ninth District states, as well as an in-depth look at Ninth District job growth since the recession in the July issue of the fedgazette.

Part-time B&W collar CH2-3
   Part-time B&W collar TABLE

 

The waiting game: Wait times at VA health centers vary across Ninth District states

Going to the doctor is not always fun. But waiting for the doctor can be worse. Much attention has been paid to wait times for military veterans seeking care at Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) medical centers across the country, and data from the VA show that wait times vary significantly among VA health care systems in Ninth District states.

For example, the percentage of pending appointments that are scheduled more than 30 days after the preferred date runs as low as 1 percent (Fargo, N.D.) to 10 percent (Milwaukee, Wis.), according to VA data released this month for appointments through March 15, 2015. The likelihood of waiting also appears unrelated to volume; for example, the Minneapolis office, which had 73,000 pending appointments at 11 health centers across the state, has a lower average wait rate than Milwaukee, which has 58,000 appointments on the books at six facilities.

Field facilities within a specific VA district also vary considerably. For example, at Montana’s busiest VA facility (Fort Harrison), nearly 16 percent of appointments are scheduled more than 30 days past the preferred date, while the rate is 4.4 percent in Billings. But again, volume isn’t necessarily the culprit. The Iron Mountain district serves the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Its busiest facility (in Iron Mountain) had a 30-day wait rate of 5.7 percent, while the Marquette facility—with one-quarter of the appointments—had a wait rate of 13.2 percent.

VA wait times -- 4-9-15

Ad hoc survey: Ninth District businesses plan to ramp up hiring, increase starting pay

The Ninth District economy is in growth mode and employment is expected to increase, based on a recent poll of 140 business contacts from around the district (see methodology below).

Businesses are expecting to expand, with 46 percent of respondents planning to increase employment at their firms and 58 percent of these firms citing anticipated high sales growth as the most important factor behind increased employment. Only 3 percent plan to decrease employment. In the same survey a year ago, 41 percent planned to increase employment and 9 percent planned to cut jobs (see chart).

Other important factors cited for new hiring were overworked staff, the need for additional skills and improved financial condition of firms. The vast majority of respondents plan to use current employee referrals, word of mouth and advertising to get new employees. Forty-eight percent plan to use a recruiting firm, which is up from 22 percent of respondents in last year’s poll. Twenty-seven percent of respondents also plan to raise starting pay compared with only 8 percent last year.

Feb ad hoc survey Ch1+meth -- 2-13-15

Methodology: On Dec. 1, 2014, the Minneapolis Fed emailed a web-based survey to about 600 Beige Book contacts from around the Ninth District. By Feb. 12, 140 contacts had filled out the survey. The respondents come from a variety of industries (see table).

The aches and pains of working-age disability

Since the 1980s, working-age disability has been rising, and particularly over the past decade. Many disorders can qualify a person for one of two major federal disability programs: Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) or Supplemental Security Income (SSI).

However, recipients are increasingly qualifying for these programs because of either mental disorders or conditions related to the musculoskeletal system or connective tissues, which covers a variety of muscle, back and joint disorders like arthritis, back pain, tendonitis and herniated discs.

In Ninth District states, the most common disability diagnosis (at 42 percent) for SSDI recipients is a mental disorder, such as anxiety, post-traumatic stress disorder, depression or bipolar disorder (see Chart 1). While recipient growth in this category exceeded 50 percent from 2003 to 2013, it has leveled off in recent years.

The fastest growing diagnosis involves conditions related to the musculoskeletal system and connective tissue. This category covered about one in four SSDI recipients in 2013; total recipients have doubled over the past decade. Growth in these two major diagnosis categories has also been faster in the Ninth District than in the nation over the past decade (see Chart 2).

For much more on disability trends in the Ninth District, see the January cover of the fedgazette.

Dulguun Batbold, research analyst, contributed data to this article.

Disability diagnosis CH1-2 -- 2-10-15


A look at rising veteran disability

The incidence of working-age, civilian disability, as measured by enrollments in the largest federal disability programs, has been rising for the better part of three decades (see discussion in the January fedgazette). But one other federal disability program has been witnessing even faster growth of late: veteran disability.

Veterans’ disability compensation, as it’s called, is paid to veterans who incur a disability during active military service or are diagnosed with a post-service disability that is presumed to be related to military service. After seeing little growth in the 1990s, the number of veterans qualifying for disability compensation rose by 62 percent from 2000 to 2013, according to the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (see Chart 1). During this time, the population of eligible veterans also shrank by 17 percent, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

Though historical data on veteran disability by state are not publicly available, recent data suggest that the same growth trend is occurring in Ninth District states. From 2011 to 2013, every district state saw growth of at least 7 percent in veteran disability; Minnesota’s 12 percent growth topped the national average (see Chart 2).

Veterans disability Ch1-2

Across district states, 187,000 veterans received disability benefits in 2013. That translates to a small but notable portion of the district labor force—ranging from about 2 percent (Wisconsin) to almost 4 percent (Montana), with most district states above the national average (see Chart 3).

Veterans disability Ch3

While veterans receiving disability compensation are spread throughout a given state, they tend to be more concentrated around military bases, such as Camp Ripley in central Minnesota, Ellsworth Air Force Base in Rapid City, S.D., and Malmstrom Air Force Base near Great Falls, Mont. (see map).

Dulguun Batbold, research analyst, contributed data to this article.

Veterans disability -- Map 2-4-15

 

Beige Book recap: Modest growth in Ninth District

Over the past two months, the Ninth District economy has seen modest growth, according to the latest Beige Book information released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Increased activity was noted in consumer spending, professional services, manufacturing and non-energy mining. Activity was level in tourism and mixed in commercial construction, commercial real estate and agriculture. Energy, residential real estate and residential construction were down. Labor markets continued to tighten since the previous report. While overall wage increases remained modest, there were examples of steeper increases in some regions and industries.

Consumer spending and tourism: Consumer spending increased moderately. Mall and retail representatives across district states reported solid traffic and sales. Overall tourism was about level with a year ago, according to a variety of sources. Construction and real estate: Construction activity was mixed in the district’s larger cities. In Sioux Falls, S.D., the value of November commercial permits increased from a year ago, but fell in Billings, Mont.

Residential construction: Activity was mostly lower. In the Minneapolis-St. Paul area, the value of December residential permits decreased 9 percent from a year earlier and also dropped in the Bismarck, N.D. area (November data). Residential activity was stronger in Billings and Sioux Falls, however. Home sales were generally lower from a year earlier (in November). In the Sioux Falls area, home sales were down 12 percent, inventory increased 1 percent and the median sales price increased 6 percent relative to a year earlier. Sales were also down in northwestern Wisconsin, and the median sales price was 6 percent lower. Minnesota home sales were down 13 percent, inventories of homes for sale increased 5 percent and the median sales price rose 3 percent. Home sales in the Bismarck area were about level with last year.

Manufacturing: Activity increased slightly. A manufacturing index increased in December from the previous month in Minnesota and South Dakota, but fell slightly in North Dakota. However, the index pointed to continued expansion in all three states. Through October, manufactured exports in district states were up 1 percent compared with the same period a year earlier.

Energy and mining: The energy sector slowed slightly in response to lower output prices. Oil and gas exploration activity decreased in late December compared with a month earlier in Montana and North Dakota. Mining activity increased slightly. District iron ore mines were operating at or near capacity, with November production slightly higher than a year earlier.

Agriculture: Conditions remained mixed, with livestock and dairy producers faring better than crop farmers. A Minneapolis Fed third-quarter survey found that a majority of farm incomes had fallen from a year earlier and that capital spending also decreased. The fourth quarter outlook was also weaker, according to the survey. Prices received by farmers in December decreased from a year earlier for corn, soybeans, wheat, hay and milk; prices increased for cattle, hogs, eggs and poultry.

Employment and wages: Labor markets continued to tighten since the previous report. Overall wage increases remained modest, but there were examples of steeper increases in some regions and industries. Some construction firms in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area noted that labor costs have increased recently. In addition, some managers at Minneapolis-St. Paul area restaurants indicated that they were increasing wages to attract employees.

See the full Beige Book report for more details on the national and Ninth District performance.

Sure it’s cold, but we’re upwardly mobile

If you live in a Ninth District state, which do you prefer, moving out or moving up? Probably the former if you don’t like the cold, but likely the latter in most other cases. And while Ninth District states have cold winters, so too do they offer better upward income mobility than the nation overall, according to data from a team of researchers from Harvard and UC-Berkeley.

The research project, dubbed Equality of Opportunity, collected income data on millions of parents in the last half of the 1990s. It then tracked how kids from low-income families in this sample fared in 2011 and 2012, when they were in their early 30s. (For more information on the study’s methodology, go here.)

The study split the country into more than 700 commuting zones, which are rough approximations of local economies (urban and rural). It then ranked commuting zones for absolute upward mobility—roughly, the average national income rank of a child from low-income parents in the commuting zone.

The data show that Ninth District states stand out for high absolute upward mobility. The distribution of scores for commuting zones in every district state (including the combined region of northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan) skewed higher than scores for all other commuting zones not in the Ninth District (see charts below).

For more data and discussion on this topic, see the October fedgazette for in-depth articles on both high income mobility and low income mobility in the Ninth District.

  Absolute income distribution 9th states -- 11-13-14

U.P. electricity prices tops in district

Households and firms in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan have long complained about expensive power. Civic and business leaders say high electricity rates squeeze family budgets and hamper efforts to foster industrial development in a region plagued by high unemployment.

Angst over the price of U.P. electricity has come to a head this fall. A regional power grid authority has ordered Wisconsin-based We Energies to continue operating an aging coal-fired power plant near Marquette, with costs passed along to U.P. ratepayers. If federal energy regulators approve, U.P. utility customers could see average rate increases of $100 annually to fund operating subsidies for the Presque Isles plant and two other coal-fired power plants in the U.P.

The Michigan Public Service Commission and big U.P. power consumers such as Cliffs Natural Resources—owners of the Empire and Tilden iron mines—have objected to the proposed rate hikes, saying they would further burden utility customers already paying dearly for electricity.

Federal price data show that U.P. residents pay higher electricity rates than those in other parts of the Ninth District and the nation as a whole (see Chart 1). Electricity costs about 20 percent more in the U.P. than it does in Minnesota and about 35 percent more than in North Dakota. But Yoopers pay less than Michiganders overall, and U.P. power is a bargain compared with utility rates in some parts of the country, such as New England.

However, the U.P. average rate obscures wide disparities across the peninsula; residents of some U.P. communities pay significantly more than others to keep the lights on, the result of differing customer densities and, in some cases, reliance on imported power rather than local generation sources. State PSC figures for 2013 show that power producers such as Upper Peninsular Power Co. and the Alger Delta Cooperative Electric Association, which primarily serve customers in the western and central U.P., charge much higher rates than other utilities (see Chart 2).

UP power -- 11-3-14

A summer of steady growth in the Ninth District

The Ninth District economy continued to show signs of steady growth through the summer months, characterized by job growth, decreases in unemployment rates and gains in home building.

As of August, nonfarm employment in district states was up 1.8 percent relative to a year ago, posting a net increase of about 122,000 jobs. North Dakota reported the strongest employment growth among district states, accounting for about one in every six jobs added in the Ninth District over the past 12 months despite the state’s workforce comprising only 7 percent of the district total. Employment growth in other district states was largely in line with the national trend (up 1.8 percent), except in South Dakota, where nonfarm employment growth was 0.7 percent.

The district unemployment rate dropped to 4.7 percent over the same period, down 0.8 percentage points from a year ago. The spread in unemployment rates among district states has narrowed over the past 12 months. Regions with relatively high unemployment rates, such as the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, Wisconsin and Montana, posted larger year-over-year declines than Minnesota and the Dakotas, where unemployment rates started out much lower last year.

Manufacturing wage growth in the district slowed to 1.4 percent during the three-month period ending in August, compared with a growth rate of 2.5 percent during the same period a year earlier. With the exception of North Dakota and Wisconsin, growth in manufacturing wages in district states was below the national average of 1.6 percent. Montana’s manufacturing workers reported the lowest year-over-year growth rate in hourly earnings among district states, which barely reversed the flat or declining trend in manufacturing wages in the state for much of 2013 and early 2014.

During second quarter 2014, personal income growth (adjusted for inflation) across district states was positive, posting a 2.2 percent overall increase relative to a year ago for the district. Except for North Dakota, all district states posted lower personal income growth rates relative to the national average of 2.4 percent, while South Dakota’s state ranking in growth was near the bottom.

New housing authorizations for the three-month period ending in August were up 8.2 percent in district states; however, rates varied widely among district states. Montana and South Dakota posted year-over-year declines of over 20 percent in new housing authorizations, while North Dakota showed a 42 percent increase over the same period. Housing authorizations in Minnesota and Wisconsin were up 5 percent and 10 percent, respectively, closer to the national average of 7.7 percent.

Home prices continued to show increases in several district cities. During the second quarter of 2014, home prices were 7.4 percent higher than a year ago in Bismarck, N.D., 6.7 percent higher in Minneapolis-St. Paul, 3.2 percent higher in Fargo, N.D., and 2.6 percent higher in Sioux Falls, S.D. Nationally, home prices increased by 4.4 percent during the same period.

For current and historical data on the economic indicators referenced here, see the “Monthly Summary” spreadsheet, along with other Ninth District data that are updated regularly.

Personal income weak across Ninth District in first quarter

Personal income in all Ninth District states grew less than the national average in the first quarter of 2014, according to just-released figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Quarterly personal income in North Dakota fell at an annualized rate of 2.9 percent, the worst of any state (see chart). Personal income in both North Dakota and South Dakota fell two quarters in a row.

Personal income chart -- 6-25-14

The subpar economic performance is almost wholly due to huge reductions in farm earnings, which were steepest in North Dakota (see table). Crop prices for most of the district crop commodities fell, while many input costs rose. This put downward pressures on farm earnings. However, Wisconsin saw gains in farm earnings, possibly attributable to dairy, whose output prices remained firm as feed input costs decreased.

In that light, economic conditions are not as dire as they might seem. Almost all the industry groups experienced some gains in income in the first quarter. Oil production is still growing in North Dakota, as the mining industry (which includes oil production) grew by an annualized 8 percent in the first quarter after rising over 7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013.

Personal income table -- 6-25-14