58 posts categorized "Labor"

Part-time jobs: Many young workers, but shifting older

Looking at the age of workers tells some interesting stories when it comes to part-time jobs.

The rate of part-time work varies considerably by age. Close to half of those below the age of 25 work part time. For those 55 and over, the rate is about one-quarter, double the rate for those 25 to 54 years old, according to figures from the Current Population Survey.

During the recession, part-time work among those below the age of 25 dropped, the continuation of a longer-term decline in total employment among younger workers reaching back more than a decade (see here), and the likely outcome during the recession of “last in, first out” as employers kept those with more experience on the payroll (see Chart 1).

At the same time, the total number of part-time workers age 25 to 54 saw a noticeable rise during and shortly after the recession as more prime-age workers appeared to latch on to whatever work was available. And in contrast to both of these trends, the number of part-timers age 55 and over has risen steadily since 2007, the possible result (at least in part) of an increasing number of baby boomers entering this age group and a concomitant rise in the workforce participation rate among older workers.

As for those working part time for economic reasons—what the CPS considers “involuntary” part time—the younger you are the more likely you were to be working part time because you couldn’t find something better (see Chart 2). The rate for those under the age of 25 was particularly volatile, but even those in their prime working years saw the involuntary rate double from 2008 to 2010.

Involuntary part-time rates have been in retreat across the board in recent years, but also remain elevated compared with prerecession levels, particularly for the youngest workers. At the same time, total employment levels among these labor pools have been converging of late.

Look for future fedgazette Roundup blog posts on more part-time job trends in Ninth District states, as well as an in-depth look at Ninth District job growth since the recession in the July issue of the fedgazette.

  Part-time AGE Ch1-2 -- 7-8-15

The part-time blues: White collar versus blue collar jobs

Part-time work has seen a considerable swing since the recession (see earlier Roundup post). Different types of workers also saw varying fluctuations in part-time work. Take blue collar versus white collar workers, for example.

The Current Population Survey, conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau, categorizes 11 major occupations by the color of their collar: Two are white collar and nine are blue collar (see table, at bottom). As a result, blue collar jobs currently make up a little more than 70 percent of all part-time jobs (see Chart 1).

Part-time B&W collar CH1

Roughly one-quarter of all blue collar jobs are part time, a ratio that changed modestly during the recession, but has been declining (see Chart 2). Levels of “part-time jobs for economic reasons”—a category described by the CPS as “involuntary”—are also much higher as a share of the labor force compared with white collar positions (see Chart 3).

 The share of blue collar workers at part-time jobs involuntarily rose steeply during the recession and remained quite elevated until last year, when levels began to fall quite rapidly and are now near prerecession levels. A similar pattern exists for the share of white collar workers who are part time involuntarily, although this share is still somewhat elevated.

Look for future fedgazette Roundup blog posts on more part-time job trends in Ninth District states, as well as an in-depth look at Ninth District job growth since the recession in the July issue of the fedgazette.

Part-time B&W collar CH2-3
   Part-time B&W collar TABLE

 

Ninth District Beige Book: Signs of moderate economic growth in spring

Since early April, some key sectors in the Ninth District economy have varied, but overall growth has been moderate. Home sales and prices increased at a strong rate, although residential construction remained flat. Energy and mining activity continued to decline, contributing to a slowdown in spending and employment in the energy-producing region of western North Dakota and eastern Montana. While prices were relatively stable and wage increases remained mild, some signs of increased wage pressures appeared.

Residential real estate and consumer spending grew

Residential real estate activity showed strong increases in many parts of the Ninth District during April compared with a year earlier. For example, in western Wisconsin, home sales increased 25 percent and the median sales price rose 12 percent, while in Minnesota, home sales were up 20 percent with the median sales price up 12 percent. Home sales were buoyed in part by a relatively mild spring in many parts of the district. Meanwhile, residential construction was flat overall.

Retail and tourism spending also contributed to positive economic growth. According to a recent survey of district business leaders conducted by the Minneapolis Fed, 40 percent of respondents noted that retail spending increased over the past three months, while 12 percent reported that sales had decreased. An auto dealers association expects Minnesota vehicle sales in 2015 to exceed last year’s levels. Tourism activity was solid in many parts of the district in part due to seasonably warm weather. A travel agency in Minnesota noted that leisure travel bookings for March and April were up over 10 percent.

Meanwhile, manufacturing activity was level overall in April and May. The impact of the recent increase in the exchange value of the dollar likely had an effect on district manufacturers, as 29 percent of manufacturer respondents to the district business-leader survey reported that the dollar’s rise had decreased sales, though most reported that sales had not changed. “Increased value of the dollar has hurt our bottom line because of lower revenue from outside the U.S. on same volume,” commented a respondent. An index of manufacturing activity by Creighton University increased in April from the previous month in Minnesota and South Dakota; the index fell in North Dakota, but was at levels consistent with slight growth in all three states.

Natural resources sectors were slow

Natural resources sectors, including agriculture, energy and mining, had a depressing effect on the district economy. While progress in crop planting was well ahead of its five-year average and drought conditions were relieved by recent rains in several areas, the Minneapolis Fed’s first-quarter (April) survey of agricultural credit conditions showed that 79 percent of respondents said farm incomes fell in the previous three months, with a similar outlook for the second quarter. The avian flu has impacted a number of poultry producers and is expected to cost Minnesota turkey producers more than $300 million.

In the energy-producing area of the district, the drilling rig count dropped to 79 in mid-May, all in North Dakota (no rigs were active in Montana), down from almost 200 in September 2014. The continued decline in drilling activity led to layoffs of oilfield workers and reduced demand for support services. Nevertheless, oil production levels and transportation remained relatively high, albeit down from record levels set in December. The slowdown in oil drilling made its way to Wisconsin and Minnesota, where output at mines producing sand for hydraulic fracturing was expected to decline this year and one facility was idled. However, the overall economic impact of the reduction in oil and gas drilling has remained relatively contained to the energy-producing area.

Some tightening in labor markets and signs of wage pressures

As the district continued to show signs of moderate economic growth, hiring increased on balance and labor markets tightened further. According to a recent ad hoc survey by the Minneapolis Fed, 40 percent of respondents said their ability to retain employees has become harder over the past 12 months, while just 3 percent said it has become easier. “We are seeing a lot of employee turnover, as most see this as the best way to impact salary and opportunity,” noted a respondent to the professional business services survey. A Minnesota manufacturers survey found that hiring plans for the upcoming year are similar to a year ago. However, labor markets softened in the energy-producing area of the district; online job openings were down 23 percent in April compared with a year earlier in the North Dakota oil patch (see Chart 1).

Prices were relatively stable, except for a recent increase in gasoline prices. Wage increases remained mild in April and May, with some instances of increased wage pressures. For example, about a quarter of respondents to the aforementioned ad hoc survey were raising starting pay for most job categories to attract new hires (see Chart 2). Three health care systems in Minnesota have agreed to a minimum wage of $15 per hour under recent contract agreements.

Beige Book June 2015 -- 6-12-15

Part-time work falling since recession

There has been a fair amount of angst over the uptick in part-time jobs during and immediately after the recession, both nationally and in the Ninth District (see Chart 1 for district trend). This was particularly the case because all of the increase came from people holding part-time jobs for economic reasons, which is data-speak for “because they couldn’t find full-time work.”

Part-time Ch1 5-29-15Although these are a small minority of all part-time jobs (most people working part-time prefer to do so), the share of part-time jobs for economic reasons doubled from 2007 to 2010, to almost 6 percent of the total labor force, and 20 percent of part-time labor.

But over the past five years or so, the total number of part-time jobs has been dropping. So too have part-time jobs as a share of total jobs and the share of part-time jobs for economic reasons, though the latter measure remains elevated compared with precrisis levels.

The same trends are broadly applicable by race in Ninth District states, but their paths have been considerably different, according to data from the Current Population Survey, gathered monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau.

CPS data show that until about 2010, black workers had fairly low rates of part-time work, but those rates then spiked well above the rates of whites and other minority groups (see Chart 2). (Because of sample sizes and comparatively small minority populations through much of the Ninth District, all other minority groups had to be combined.) Virtually all of this increase came from those working part-time for economic reasons, which also rose more for other minority groups than for whites (see Chart 3).

The good news is that part-time work, especially for economic reasons, has been in retreat, including a steep decline for black workers since mid-2013, though this measure also remains elevated compared with prerecession levels.

Part-time Ch2-3 -- 5-29-15

Look for future fedgazette Roundup posts on more part-time job trends in Ninth District states, as well as an in-depth look at Ninth District job growth since the recession in the July issue of the fedgazette.

Claire Hou, research assistant, contributed to this article.

More recharging personal batteries at national parks

Even in the digital age—or maybe because of it—the great outdoors continues to be a tourism draw, as evidenced by growing visits to the country’s national parks, according to data from the National Park Service (NPS). And those visits are translating to the Ninth District economy.

Attendance has been trending upward at many parks, especially since the recession. Last year, attendance grew 6 percent among the 13 national parks in the Ninth District with annual attendance of at least 100,000, and is up almost 20 percent since 2008 (see Chart 1). In 2014, attendance at these district parks hit 9 million for the first time.

Among these large national parks in the district, two of them—Mount Rushmore in South Dakota and Glacier National in Montana—are responsible for half of all visitors. (The list does not include Yellowstone, portions of which are in Montana, but which lies mostly in Wyoming.) The biggest jump in attendance last year occurred at the Apostle Island National Park. Located in Lake Superior off the northern tip of Wisconsin, it saw attendance double to almost 300,000 in 2014 thanks to an impressive formation of ice caves on the island, coupled with a uniquely long viewing period.

Those visitors are spending money and creating jobs, according to a separate NPS database. Visitor spending hit nearly $1.2 billion last year, supporting more than 20,000 jobs (see Chart 2) in district states.

National parks

Bakken showing impact of oil price drop

Employment data are picking up on the impact of lower oil prices on labor markets in the Bakken. The price for West Texas Intermediate dropped from $90 per barrel in the beginning of October to $50 in January, hovering around that price since then. During this time, the number of active drilling rigs in North Dakota and Montana decreased by more than 50 percent, dropping below 100 rigs at the end of March and leading to layoffs of oilfield workers.

These job losses seemed to impact overall employment, as levels decreased from 102,600 in December to 95,000 in January for the 12-county area that makes up the core area of the Bakken (see definition below). Seasonality affects employment data, as levels are higher during the summer months and lower in the winter (see Chart 1). However, during the previous two years, employment increased slightly from December to January.

As employment slowed, the unemployment rate for the region increased from 1.5 percent in December to 2.1 percent in January (see Chart 2). While the Bakken unemployment rate also increased from December to January during the previous two years, the rate increased faster during the most recent period. For the whole state of North Dakota, the unemployment rate increased to 2.9 percent in February, losing its status as the lowest unemployment rate in the nation to Nebraska, which posted a 2.7 percent rate.

Bakken update Ch1-2 -- 4-6-15

The number of online job postings in the Bakken area also decreased from December to January, but increased slightly from January to February (see Chart 3). The number of job openings still remains at a relatively high level in the region, despite layoffs in the oilfields. Companies from a variety of sectors continue to actively look for workers. But with the loosening in labor markets, employers in and around the Bakken have reported an increased number of applicants to choose from.

  Bakken update Ch3 -- 4-6-15

12-county Bakken area: North Dakota counties: Billings, Burke, Divide, Dunn, Golden Valley, McKenzie, Mountrail, Stark and Williams. Montana counties: Richland, Roosevelt and Sheridan

Ninth District economy grew in January and February

Oil has dominated the headlines, but the Ninth District economy continued to expand in January and February, with many indicators exhibiting strength and labor markets appearing to have tightened. Several sectors, particularly energy and other commodities, are dealing with low prices. But counteractive, positive conditions for consumers and others helped limit the negative effects. Mild winter weather has had similarly mixed effects.

A wide swath of sectors saw growth. For example, a manufacturing index increased, indicating expansion in the Dakotas and Minnesota. A manufacturer of capital equipment reported that demand in January was stronger than expected. In the services sector, a merger and acquisition services firm noted increased consulting activity and a web design and programming firm noted increased interest from newer firms. In addition, railroads plan to invest more in capital equipment in 2015, and several retailers noted sales increases.

Labor markets continued to tighten, as unemployment rates dropped in many areas of the district. Business owners in South Dakota and western Montana noted difficulty finding workers to fill open positions. A Minnesota staffing firm reported that finding workers was difficult and that competition for those workers increased recently.

As labor markets have tightened, wage pressures appear to have increased in some areas. While data suggest that overall wage increases have been moderate, there were more frequent reports of wage increases above 3 percent during the past couple of months. A recent ad hoc survey by the Minneapolis Fed also found that more employers planned to increase starting pay. Nevertheless, overall wage increases generally remained moderate. Lower energy and other commodities prices affected different regions of the Ninth District.

Lower oil prices affected producers as they cut back on new development in North Dakota and Montana by nearly 30 percent from the beginning of the year, leading to reduced hours and layoffs of oilfield workers (see chart). The number of job postings in the region has also decreased, but several companies in various sectors are still looking for employees. Wage pressures and apartment rental prices have eased somewhat in the energy-producing region.

Beige book blog 3-10-15

Among other commodities, the evidence is mixed. For example, lower metal prices caused a Montana copper-silver mine to shut down. Even though iron ore prices have been dropping, an iron ore analyst expects production to increase slightly in 2015. Low crop prices have hampered farmers, but benefited animal producers due to lower feed costs.

While some sectors have suffered from lower commodity prices, district consumers have benefited. For example, Minnesota gasoline prices in mid-February were over a dollar per gallon lower than a year ago. This may have helped boost consumer spending, as district retailers noted growth in retail sales. For example, a North Dakota mall noted that sales were up in January compared with a year ago, and a bar and restaurant chain in Minnesota reported strong sales during January compared with last year. Recent light truck and car sales were relatively solid in Montana, according to a representative of an auto dealers association.

The increasing value of the dollar has made U.S. products more expensive for foreigners. For example, the stronger U.S. dollar and Canadian exchange rate dampened demand from Canadian tourists and shoppers as border crossings and related sales decreased in district states.

The winter has been relatively warm and dry, which aided commercial construction firms that were able to build more and required less heating. Ranchers benefited from less winter stress on their animals. However, not all benefited from mild weather. Several auto body shops complained they had less demand due to better driving conditions that reduced accidents. Some apparel stores had difficulty selling winter clothing due to relatively mild weather conditions during December and January. In addition, a lack of snow slowed winter tourism activity in several areas.

Ad hoc survey: Ninth District businesses plan to ramp up hiring, increase starting pay

The Ninth District economy is in growth mode and employment is expected to increase, based on a recent poll of 140 business contacts from around the district (see methodology below).

Businesses are expecting to expand, with 46 percent of respondents planning to increase employment at their firms and 58 percent of these firms citing anticipated high sales growth as the most important factor behind increased employment. Only 3 percent plan to decrease employment. In the same survey a year ago, 41 percent planned to increase employment and 9 percent planned to cut jobs (see chart).

Other important factors cited for new hiring were overworked staff, the need for additional skills and improved financial condition of firms. The vast majority of respondents plan to use current employee referrals, word of mouth and advertising to get new employees. Forty-eight percent plan to use a recruiting firm, which is up from 22 percent of respondents in last year’s poll. Twenty-seven percent of respondents also plan to raise starting pay compared with only 8 percent last year.

Feb ad hoc survey Ch1+meth -- 2-13-15

Methodology: On Dec. 1, 2014, the Minneapolis Fed emailed a web-based survey to about 600 Beige Book contacts from around the Ninth District. By Feb. 12, 140 contacts had filled out the survey. The respondents come from a variety of industries (see table).

The aches and pains of working-age disability

Since the 1980s, working-age disability has been rising, and particularly over the past decade. Many disorders can qualify a person for one of two major federal disability programs: Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) or Supplemental Security Income (SSI).

However, recipients are increasingly qualifying for these programs because of either mental disorders or conditions related to the musculoskeletal system or connective tissues, which covers a variety of muscle, back and joint disorders like arthritis, back pain, tendonitis and herniated discs.

In Ninth District states, the most common disability diagnosis (at 42 percent) for SSDI recipients is a mental disorder, such as anxiety, post-traumatic stress disorder, depression or bipolar disorder (see Chart 1). While recipient growth in this category exceeded 50 percent from 2003 to 2013, it has leveled off in recent years.

The fastest growing diagnosis involves conditions related to the musculoskeletal system and connective tissue. This category covered about one in four SSDI recipients in 2013; total recipients have doubled over the past decade. Growth in these two major diagnosis categories has also been faster in the Ninth District than in the nation over the past decade (see Chart 2).

For much more on disability trends in the Ninth District, see the January cover of the fedgazette.

Dulguun Batbold, research analyst, contributed data to this article.

Disability diagnosis CH1-2 -- 2-10-15


A look at rising veteran disability

The incidence of working-age, civilian disability, as measured by enrollments in the largest federal disability programs, has been rising for the better part of three decades (see discussion in the January fedgazette). But one other federal disability program has been witnessing even faster growth of late: veteran disability.

Veterans’ disability compensation, as it’s called, is paid to veterans who incur a disability during active military service or are diagnosed with a post-service disability that is presumed to be related to military service. After seeing little growth in the 1990s, the number of veterans qualifying for disability compensation rose by 62 percent from 2000 to 2013, according to the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (see Chart 1). During this time, the population of eligible veterans also shrank by 17 percent, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

Though historical data on veteran disability by state are not publicly available, recent data suggest that the same growth trend is occurring in Ninth District states. From 2011 to 2013, every district state saw growth of at least 7 percent in veteran disability; Minnesota’s 12 percent growth topped the national average (see Chart 2).

Veterans disability Ch1-2

Across district states, 187,000 veterans received disability benefits in 2013. That translates to a small but notable portion of the district labor force—ranging from about 2 percent (Wisconsin) to almost 4 percent (Montana), with most district states above the national average (see Chart 3).

Veterans disability Ch3

While veterans receiving disability compensation are spread throughout a given state, they tend to be more concentrated around military bases, such as Camp Ripley in central Minnesota, Ellsworth Air Force Base in Rapid City, S.D., and Malmstrom Air Force Base near Great Falls, Mont. (see map).

Dulguun Batbold, research analyst, contributed data to this article.

Veterans disability -- Map 2-4-15